Climate changes susceptibility in agriculture: A high extent of food and nutrition insecurity in Coastal area of rural Bangladesh

Preface:

The concept of global warming should not receive the amount of attention that is currently determined on this issue because the earth continuously goes through spells of warming and cooling. On the other hand the increasing temperature of the world is but a part of this natural cycle and out of human control. Food and safe life is a social right of human being but this changes of climate, now days the life of coastal areas people of developing world is in high risk especially in Bangladesh and South Asian coastal belt. We most of the people know climate change and greenhouse gas emission by the industrial countries and particularly western region and some eastern countries (Alam, M., 2003). Consequence results are sea level raising and frequent natural calamities and ultimate outputs are food insecurity and vulnerability to the rural people of coastal area in developing world. In this paper I would like to dig out the root causes of climate change and its consequences impact in rural coastal area of Bangladesh, where people are living in hardcore poverty and natural vulnerability, particularly high level of food insecurity. National and international social and political dilemmas are the major reasons for these uneven and unexpected situations ever being.

Key words: Food insecurity, vulnerability, climate change, natural disaster, hardcore poverty

1.      Introduction:

Climate variability is critical development issues for current world same as to Bangladesh. The country is ranked as the most vulnerable to natural disasters due to frequent cyclones, storm surges and floods, coupled with a high population density and growth, and low climate resilience. In most years between 30-50% of the country is affected by floods (BER, 2009, BBS, 2008). Climate change is projected to change the intensity and frequency of natural disasters, worsen the extent of flooding and negatively impact agricultural productivity, infrastructure and development prospects (FAO, 1994, 1999, IFRI, 2010). Bangladesh has already taken action to face the climate challenge by adopting various policies to address climate change and investing heavily in adaption measures (IPCC, 2007). The recently prepared Climate Change policy and Action Plan coherent evidently how Bangladesh intends to scale up its effort to become resilient to climate change (NAPA, 2001, GOB, 2006). In this paper I am exploring the possible complex underlying reason to decreasing rice and other agriculture production which is determined by Ministry of Agriculture report as well as my regular field visit as a local inhabitant on the other hand to adapt the local community especially the farmer group for continuing their rice and other agriculture production in saline water in coastal area of Bangladesh (Brammer, et al., 1993).

Soil salinity is a worldwide problem. Bangladesh is no exception to it. In Bangladesh, salinization is one of the major natural hazards hampering crop production. Coastal area in Bangladesh constitutes 20% of the country of which about 53% are affected by different degrees of salinity (Islam, et al., 1999, Lokman Hoassin and et al., 2012). Agricultural land use in these areas is very poor. Declining land productivity with shift towards negative nutrient balance is among the main concerns with food security problem in the country. Salinity problem received very little attention in the past but now it is becoming emerging problems due to rapid climate change (Lokman Hoassin and et al., 2012). Nevertheless, symptoms of such land degradation with salinization are becoming too pronounced in recent years to be ignored. It has become imperative to explore the possibilities of increasing potential of these (saline) lands for increased production of food crops (Frihy, 2003). Thus combating land salinization problem is vital for food security in the country through adoption of long-term land management strategy (GEC, 2008, GIZ, 2010).

Figure-1: Bangladesh Map: General and natural soil structure.

Source: Soil Resources and Development Institution (SRDI), Dhaka, Bangladesh

On the other hand, Bangladesh is the world most climate change vulnerable country. Its economy draws the main strength from agriculture sector. The sector contributes 19.10% to GDP (at current prices 2008) and employs 50.28% of the labour force (BBS, 2008). Even though increase in the shares of fisheries, livestock, and forestry, crop sub-sector alone accounts for 60.83% share of agricultural GDP (BBS, 2008). Crop agriculture in Bangladesh is, nevertheless, constrained by a number of challenges almost every year (Lokman Hoassin and et al., 2012) due to diverse structure of soil in Bangladesh (figure-1) and climate change. Major constraint include loss of arable (cultivable) land, population growth, climate changes, insufficient managing practices (fertilizer, water, and pests & diseases), lack of quality seeds, and inadequate credit support to farmers, unfair price of produces, and insufficient investment in research. Bangladesh has lost about l million ha of arable land from 1983 to 1996 (BARC, 2007-08). Virtually, no step has been taken by the government to arrest this loss. The land use policy prepared by the government several years back has not yet been implemented. Population growth poses an extra great risk to yield efficiency. Besides, crop agriculture in Bangladesh has become regularly vulnerable to the hazards of climate change–flood, drought, and salinity in particular (Islam, M.R., 2004, Islam, M.S., 2001, 2003). In addition, underprivileged management practices, particularly those of pests and diseases, fertilizer, water and irrigation have largely contributed to vital decline in crop production (FAO, 2006). Small and marginal farmers that represent preponderance of farm population are inhibited by poor monetary assets and cannot, consequently, afford high administration expenses of high input technology (UNFCC, 2013). That’s why we commencing this project to mitigate the local marginalized small farmer as well as climate change vulnerable community may sustain their livelihood to producing their main food rice in slain soil (UNFCC, 2013).

According to IPCC (2001), most of the coastal area of Bangladesh go under saline water by 2050 or earlier. In this issue and its consequences are mainly emerging impact on agriculture and decreasing the yield of boro about 55-62% and wheat 61% by 2050 in Bangladesh (FAO, 2006). Randomly cutting of the green trees by the local influential particularly in the coastal zone for building shipyard and others activities (Agrawala, S, et al., 2003). Bangladesh facing challenges every year for crop agriculture due to reduce of cultivate land, population growth, rapid climate change, bad or inadequate management practice or absent of good governance, unethical or unfair price of agriculture product. On the other hand, after liberation each and every government has been facing different challenges and high level absent of research initiatives in different sectors and in particularly in agriculture sector therefore agriculture production increasing rate is low comparatively neighbor countries (GEC, 2008). Asib Ahmed (2011) argued, Bangladesh each year losing about 80,000 ha of cultivate land due to growth of population and different housing plants. The land use policy of Bangladesh should be reconstructed immediately for saving more agriculture land from the land terror.  Country’s commodities (food) production is hampering by flood, drought, salinity and other natural hazard (Islam, M.S., 2001, 2003, Islam, M.R, 2004) 

1.     Objective:

To ensure food security through increasing rice production in coastal saline area of Bangladesh as well as to reduce climate change vulnerability by building awareness. It’s a goal or objective but without works together (Local, National and International cooperation) this goal may not possible to achieve. Since long from my childhood I have been seen the local people still has been fighting against natural calamity. Every year they have lost their lives and assets including domestic animals by natural disaster and its most and major underlying reason is climate change and its related impacts. Therefore we feel to do something by finding the realistic reasons and generalist cope up capacity for saving their life and assets. 

2.     Methodology:

Mainly secondary data are the main sources of information including web searching. Based on that secondary data has been analysis in STATA, where was following by econometrics formula and statistical rules.  But more or less may be a little error has been occurred due to time series and liner data time to time shifted, that’s why further inclusive researches are important for get more intensive result in this issue.

3.     Literature review:

For getting in-depth information regarding the climate change and its impact in agriculture and food security in rural costal region of Bangladesh and its contemporary literature review. I am trying to collect different writing such as article, books and reports, web publication.

3.1. Climate change (Definition):

“…a change in global climate patterns apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards, attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels”. (Source: www.google.it)

3.2. UN Framework of Climate Change

Based on UN framework of climate change, only purposes are affirmed as bellow:

“For the purposes of this convention:

1. "Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare.

2. "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

3. "Climate system" means the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and geo-sphere and their interactions.

4. "Emissions" means the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified area and period of time.

5. "Greenhouse gases" means those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation.

6. "Regional economic integration organization" means an organization constituted by sovereign States of a given region which has competence in respect of matters governed by this Convention or its protocols and has been duly authorized, in accordance with its internal procedures, to sign, ratify, accept, approve or accede to the instruments concerned.

7. "Reservoir" means a component or components of the climate system where a greenhouse gas or a precursor of a greenhouse gas is stored.

8. "Sink" means any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.

9. "Source" means any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.”

3.3. The Universal warming debates among the different groups and nations:

In effect all scientists or specialist agree that the globe has warmed a small amount since the year 1000 or earlier than, if we choose, since 1800-1850, when instrumented temperature records became rationally precise and disseminated in enter areas of the world (climate change facts, 2013). A large number of people which is increasing, believe that any warming is too little that is interchangeable from the noise in the environmental statistics (UNFCCC, 1997, Wigley and et al., 1987) and that the data have not been properly adjusted for such things as urban heat island effects, and mechanism calibration (UNFCCC, 1997, WB, 2000). This is particularly true of the global data set, even though "urbanization has caused regional increases in temperature that exceed those measured on a global scale (Figure-2), leading to urban heat islands as much as 12°c hotter than their surroundings" (NCBI, 2013). Most scientists agree that warming is better than cooling and many believe CO2 provides important enhancements for forests and agriculture, even while also believing we should not be fouling our nest (Hossain, 2001).

Figure-2: Global average temperature 1850-2011

Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (web: www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs)

The grounds of the temperature increase, and therefore the future way, is matured only within the harmony group of scientists. This is based on work of computer modelers, believing their increasingly complex models show the cause is due to man's activities and that there will be increasing temperatures according to how much additional greenhouse gases are emitted (UNFCCC, 1997). There are many other scientists who are non-modelers, many with backgrounds as atmospheric physicists, climatologists, engineers, meteorologists, and paleo-climatologists (Wigley and et al., 1987), who do not believe the primary cause is mankind, although this could be part of it. These scientists and the people who follow them are often called climate change skeptics. Most of these scientists believe that the sun is at the root of the warming (if any), but that other factors are also at work (UNEP, 1989). To help separate fact from fiction, an explanation of these thoughts is included here, along with links to these materials.

The Hadley prediction chart and the observation chart below are from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, which is well respected for its historical databases maintained at the global level, and which is used in IPCC assessments. See (figure-2, 3 & 4) the Hadley composite charts for 1880 to present by month, year and quarter by hemisphere.

 Figure-3: Hadley Centre Prediction on climate change

Source: Hadley Centre (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/indicators/)

Figure-4: Global land and ocean temperature index:

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

3.4. IPCC climate change forecast and recent study:

The IPCC 2007 climate change forecast for this century was as follows:

“CO2 has risen from 280ppm to 379 ………. for 7 assumptions about future temperatures.

Temperature increase. For the next 2 decades, 0.2 deg. C (0.4 F) ………….in high northern latitudes.

Sea level rise: For 6 sets of assumptions, the mid-points are about 0.3 meters ( 1 ft.) Since 1850 sea level has risen about 200 mm (9 in.), ……………. and with no acceleration.

Other attributes: Ocean acidity should rise with reduced ph units of 0.14 to 0.35; ……………. less in sub-tropics inland areas.”

According the figure 3 and 4 we find the increasing picture of global temperature and out most consequences of climate change. 

The IPCC in its most recent report in 2007 stated:

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.'

'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This is an advance since the TAR's conclusion that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations". Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns”.

3.5. Center of Excellence for Geospatial Information Science (CEGIS) Study:

Impact of Sea-Level Rise (SLR) in Bangladesh on coastal communities and their Livelihoods CEGIS study regularly find out real picture. Where CEGIS has tried to find out “Investigating the impact of relative sea level rise on coastal communities and their livelihoods in Bangladesh” in partnership with IWM and funded by UK Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The study considered the climate change induced global sea level rise (GSLR), changes in concentration of cyclones and precipitation for both low and high greenhouse gas emission (GGE) scenarios according to the 3rd IPCC predictions. The impact analysis of coastal communities and their livelihoods has been done for the projected year 2020, 2050 and 2080 by application of state of the art mathematical model (Pfeffer, W.T. and et al. 2008, Pirazzoli, P.A., 1993).

3.6. Other similar studies:

There are more or less 2.5 billion world people’s livelihoods depend on agriculture (FAO, 2011), of these, one billionaire family farmers working small farms. The other 1.5 billion include farm laborers, fishers, migrant workers and pluralists (GOB, IUCN, BCAS, 2003). Family farms are more than just businesses. They also contribute to local, regional and national food security and to economic development (UNDP, 2010). For the farmers themselves, their farms are the basis for secure livelihoods and their well-being. World agriculture will undergo far-reaching economic and corporeal change in the coming 50 years (Ali, A.K.M.T., 2006). Population increase, urbanization and income growth will drive the demand for food while high energy prices, stress on natural resources, and climate change may act to constrain supply. To feed the world’s growing population – projected to exceed 9 billion in 2050 (UN, 2009) – it will be necessary to boost the production of food and to do so sustainably. Most important barrier to sustainable agriculture is genetically modified organ (GMO) as well as high rate of population growth. A sustainable agriculture is a system of agriculture that will last. It is an agriculture that maintains its productivity over the long run. Sustainable agriculture is both a philosophy and a system of farming. It has its roots in a set of values that reflects an awareness of both ecological and social realities (Ali, A.K.M.T., 2006, Ali, A.M.S., 2005). Working with natural soil processes is of particular importance. Sustainable agriculture systems are designed to take maximizes advantage of existing soil nutrient and water cycles, energy flows, and soil organisms for food production (Mondal, 2005). These substances are rejected on the basis of their dependence on non-renewable resources, disruption potential within the environment, and their potential impacts on wildlife, livestock and human health (Karim, Z., and et al., 1990). Instead, sustainable agriculture systems rely on crop rotations, crop residues, animal manures, legumes, green manures, off-farm organic wastes, appropriate mechanical cultivation, and mineral bearing rocks to maximize soil biological activity (UNFCCC, 1997, WB, 2000) and to maintain soil fertility and productivity (UNEP, 1989, UNFCCC, 1997, WB, 2000). Natural, biological, and cultural controls are used to manage pests, weeds and diseases (GIZ, 2010).

Due to various human activities (mainly burning of fossil fuel), carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons and water vapor) are accumulated in the earth’s atmosphere, resulting in climate change. Rising temperature expand the ocean volume in two ways. Primarily it melts mass volume of ice of the polar region and secondly, causes thermal expansion of water of the sea (figure 3 and 4). The relative contributions of thermal expansion and ice melting to this sea level rise are uncertain and estimates vary widely, from a small expansion effect through roughly equal roles for expansion and ice melting to a dominant expansion effect (Sarkar and et al., 2003). These two factors increase volume of ocean water of the earth and rise in the sea level (figure-5). The human factor that is mainly responsible for global warming and sea level rise is burning of fossil fuels. Deforestation is another human activity, responsible for decreasing the CO2 sink. Miller (2004) states that, 75% of the human caused emissions of CO2 since 1980 are due to fossil fuel burning and the remainder is the result of deforestation, agriculture, and other human changes in the land use. Emissions of CO2 from U.S. coal burning power and industrial plants alone exceeded the combined CO2 emissions of 146 nations, which contain 75% of the world’s people (Miller, 2004). As a small nation, Bangladesh plays an ignorable role for greenhouse gas emission (Sarwar, 2005). According to National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA, 2002) dialogue, per capita CO2 emission in Bangladesh is 0.2 ton per year. But, statistic for developing countries is 1.6, world average is 4.0, industrial world is 6.0 and the value for United State of America (USA) is 20.0 ton. The developing countries, representing nearly three-quarters of the world population, are responsible for less than one-quarter of the fossil-fuel carbon emissions. The OECD countries, with about 15% of the world population, account for around 44% of the total emission and individually USA is solely responsible for 23% of the total yearly fossil fuel carbon emission to the atmosphere (Singh, 2002). In contrast, Bangladesh contributes a microscopic 0.06% (Warrick at el., 1993). Besides, ice melting, thermal expansion and also some local factors like subsidence and siltation play role in the sea level rise process (more detail in next heading no. 5).

4.     Challenges and underlying reason of climate change vulnerabilities:

Rise in sea level, predicted 88 and 89 cm along the coastline of Bangladesh roughly 25% of landmass is likely to be inundated permanently if sea level rises by 89 cm which might create 18 million climate refugees (UNFCC, 2013, Titus, J. G., and et al., 1991). With rising sea surface temperature, it is very likely that the intensity and the frequency of the storm will increase saltwater intrusion could further compound the problem by crippling the agriculture sector. Loss of cultivable land and most of the land newly created coastline would be useless and riverbank erosion will increase the southern region are most horizontal to frequent flood, the north western regions are likely to experience a slow desertification. The impact of climate change will radically affect crop productivity, food security and livelihood (GIZ, 2010, IFPRI, 2010). Due to chronic malnutrition caused by shrinking food grain supply will create more vulnerable the health care and nutrition initiatives of Bangladesh (IFPRI, 2010). Water related impacts of climate change will likely be the most critical for Bangladesh– largely related to coastal and riverine flooding, but also enhanced possibility of winter (dry season) drought in certain areas. The effects of increased flooding resulting from climate change will be the greatest problem faced by Bangladesh. Both coastal flooding (from sea and river water), and inland flooding (river/rain water) are expected to increase.

Flooding in Bangladesh is a regular feature and has numerous adverse effects, including loss of life through drowning, increased prevalence of disease, and destruction of property. This is because much of the Bangladesh is located on a floodplain of three major rivers and their numerous tributaries. One-fifth of the country is flooded every year, and in extreme years, two-thirds of the country can be inundated (Mirza, 2002). This vulnerability to flooding is exacerbated by the fact that Bangladesh is also a low-lying deltaic nation exposed to storm surges from the Bay of Bengal. There has been a trend in recent decades of much higher inter-annual variation in area flooded (Pfeffer and et al. 2008, Pirazzoli, 1993). Since the late 1970s flooding events have tended to cover significantly lower or significantly higher areas than what was observed in prior decades. This trend in edges cannot be simply attributed to climate change. Rather several other factors are at play. Better flood monitoring and control measures have probably contributed to significant reduction in areal coverage of moderate flooding events, which now cover much lower area (Lokman, 2012). According to figure-5 we find some projected scenario those are really significant responsible for future enchantment of development and food and nutrition security in Bangladesh. With regard to extremes at the upper end such as the 1988 and 1998 flooding events, climatic variability as well as long term climatic change could certainly be contributing factors (Pfeffer and et al. 2008).

Figure-5: Projected scenarios due to climate change in Bangladesh (six elements):

Parameters	Worst Scenario (predictable)
	2050	2100
Relative Sea Level Rise	153cm	460cm
Land Subsidence	140cm	240cm
Shore Line Erosion	1.5km	3 Km
Loss of Habitable Land	16 km2	34 km2
Displace Population	13%	40%
Reduction of Mangrove Area	79 km2	95 km2

Source: http://www.ngof.org/wdb/climate-water.php,  (Retrieve on December, 2013)

4.1. Increased Chilly Melt:

Higher temperatures will result in chillier melt, increasing runoff from the neighboring Himalayas into the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Given the altitude of the mountains and the enormous size of the glaciers, this problem will most likely continue over the century (EPI, 2004, Elliott, L., 2004, Hossain, 2001, Iqbal, 2012). The problem could be of even greater concern as there is evidence to show that temperatures in the Himalayas are rising at higher rates, thereby contributing to enhanced snow melt (Karim and et al., 1990).

4.2. Increased Rainfall:

While this is not certain, the climate models tend to show increased precipitation, particularly during the monsoon season. This will contribute to increased runoff. For example, Mirza and Dixit (1997) found that a 2°C warming with a 10% increase in precipitation  would increase runoff in the main three river of Bangladesh (Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna) by 19%, 13%, and 11%, respectively (Lokman and et al., 2012).

4.3. Sea Level Rise (SLR):

Sea level rise will result in coastal flooding both under ambient conditions (given the low elevations of the coast), and even more so in the event of storm surges (Pirazzoli, 1993, Lokman, 2012). It will also indirectly cause riverine flooding by causing more backing up of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Rivers along the delta. The below figure-6 where a collection of different six data set on SLR, shown from 1850 with an arbitrary vertical offset for clear understand. Variances of these data sets are very reasonable but its significance level is very important for policymaker and decision makers for next course of action in climate change issues.

Figure-6: Global Sea level raising variance (Six Datasets). 

Source: Jevrejeva et al. 2006 (http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2009/global-data-sets/SEALEVEL_sveta.txt)

5. Increased intensity of cyclone winds and precipitation:

On the other hand, it is also possible – though considerably more uncertain - that drought could increase under climate change. Drought is a recurring problem in Bangladesh: 19 occurred between 1960 and 1991 (Lokman, 2012). Drought is typically caused when the monsoon rains, which normally produce 80% of Bangladesh’s annual precipitation, are significantly reduced (Miller, 2008). The southwest and northwest regions of the country are most vulnerable to drought. The estimates from the climate models do not yield a clear picture of how droughts will change. The estimated changes in precipitation are not significant (EPI, 2004, Elliott, 2004). The models tend to show increased monsoon precipitation and annual precipitation, which could mean fewer droughts. But, a number of climate models estimate decreased annual precipitation (Karim and et al., 1990), and the models tend to show reduced precipitation in the winter months. So the possibility of increased drought cannot be ruled out.

5.1.   Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Salinity Intrusion:

A direct consequence of sea level rise would be intrusion of salinity with tide through the rivers and estuaries. It would be more acute in the dry season, especially when freshwater flows from rivers would diminish (Sarwar, M. G. M., 2005). According to an estimate of the Master Plan Organization, about 14,000 sq km of coastal and offshore areas have saline soils and are susceptible to tidal flooding (BBS, 2008, See Figure-6). If some 16,000 sq km of coastal land is lost due to a 45 cm rise in sea level, the salinity front would be pushed further inland (Pfeffer, and et al. 2008).

Figure-7: Map of Bangladesh (Selected Area): Salinity Concentration in Groundwater

Source: Soil Resources and Development Institution (SRDI), Dhaka, Bangladesh

The present interface between freshwater and saline water lies around 120 to 160 area, will cause reduction in fish production. Pond culture in the coastal area will be affected by intrusion of salt water into ponds, unless embankments are made around them. Shrimp farming in the coastal area is a lucrative business. Increase in salinity is likely to jeopardize the shrimp farming. For the last few decades, more and more attention is being given to sea fish and brackish water fisheries.

In the southwest as well as in the estuary, salinity levels are likely to change in the polders due to sea level rise and increased rainfall. The construction of these polders has been started in the 1960s under the Coastal Embankment Project with the expressed objective of flood protection and prevention of saline water intrusion. Since sea level rise would enhance saline incursion, while increased rainfall would dilute the water to reduce salinity, the net effect on polders and other associated croplands is uncertain (Mondal, 2005). Therefore, several studies indicate that the coastal zone vulnerability would be acute due to the combined effects of climate change, sea level rise, subsidence, and changes of upstream river discharge, cyclone and coastal embankments area, will cause reduction in fish production (Lokman Hossain and et al., 2012, Mondal, 2005, Rashid, and Islam, 2007). Pond culture in the coastal area will be affected by intrusion of salt water into ponds, unless embankments are made around them. Shrimp farming in the coastal area is a lucrative business. Increase in salinity is likely to jeopardize the shrimp farming (Mondal, 2005). For the last few decades, more and more attention is being given to sea fish and brackish water fisheries.

5      5.2. Threat to agriculture production:

Effect of saline water intrusion in the estuaries and into the groundwater would be enhanced by low river flow, sea level rise and subsidence. The adverse effects of saline water intrusion will be significant on coastal agriculture and the availability of fresh water for public and industrial water supply will fall. Agriculture is a major sector of Bangladesh's economy and the coastal area of Bangladesh is very fertile for growing rice. Increase in salinity intrusion and increase in soil salinity will have serious negative impacts on agriculture. The presently practised rice varieties may not be able to endure increased salinity. The food production does not seem to have a better future in the incident of a climate change. In Bangladesh, rice production may fall by 10 % and wheat by 30 % by 2050 (Climate change in Asia 'too alarming to contemplate'-report, IPCC, 2007).

5            5.3. An example of salinity intrusion:

There is clear evidence of increased saline intrusion in the coastal zones. For example in the coastal city of Khulna the main power station needs to collect fresh water to cools its boilers by sending a barge upstream to get freshwater. Over the last one decade the barge has to go further and further upstream to get suitably fresh water for the purpose. While there is other divert water flows to Calcutta), the trend towards salinization in the coastal zone is very clear. (NAPA, 2005). Of the several factors that affect rice production, a biotic stresses limit rice yields in 9 million hectares in central and inland areas of the country (Lokman and et al., 2012). In India, water available for agriculture has fallen by nearly 10% during the last decade (Lokman and et al., 2012). While in Bangladesh, about 2.8 million hectares of coastal soil has become saline due to heavy withdrawal of surface and groundwater for irrigation and intrusion of seawater (SRDI, 1998, Sing, 2002, Sarkar, M.A.R and et al., 2003). The total saline area forms a third of the 9 million hectares of total national cultivated area in Bangladesh. In addition, drought has adversely affected rice in all three cropping seasons and ultimate result is food insecurity of its population particularly rural poor.

5.4.   Further action should taken:

Ø  Emphasize salinity issue in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan and early action should taken for early result;

Ø  More study/ scientific research for innovating introducing salinity tolerant crop varieties;

Ø  Incorporate drinking water crisis due to salinity in the National Water Policy Raise global awareness of the need to address vulnerability to salinity as sea-level is rising upstream flow must be increased.

6.     Probably impacts of climate change to Bangladesh:

The impacts of climate change including rising temperatures, changing rainfall and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are already being felt in many parts of the world. The consequences of these changes are particularly serious in developing countries where livelihoods and ecosystems are highly sensitive to changes in climate; the majority of people rely on the natural resource base for their livelihoods; and the capacity to adapt is limited by poverty, poor governance and inequitable distribution of resources and power. The observed and predicted changes in climate have significant implications for food and income security, health and access to water and other natural resources. This is particularly true for poor rural people who are dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, and for poor women and other marginalized groups who often lack access to the resources and services which would allow them to adapt (Agrawala, S. and et al., 2003). The impacts of climate change pretense a serious risk to the achievement of social justice and an end to poverty (IFPRI, 2010). It is clear that adaptation to climate change will be critical to achieving sustainable development, and that this will require action across sectors and at multiple levels. The international community must organize resources for adaptation, and support capacity development in susceptible countries to tackle the challenge of climate change. Otherwise high level food and nutrition insecurity will be occurred in coastal area of Bangladesh.

7.     Climate Change Impact in Agriculture and Food:

The challenge for Bangladesh agriculture, to put simply, is to increase production, while minimizing environmental impact. This includes conserving and protecting the quality of the resources that determine the performance of agriculture like land, water and air. Reductions in yield, although determined by many factors, may be partially a consequence of land and water exploitation (FAO, 1994).  

Figure-7: Regression result of total demand of rice, rice production, white production and net production of both commodities in Bangladesh over the time (using STATA).

Figure-8: Kernel Density: Total commodities (food) production trends normal and estimated. 

By the early 1980s approx. 53 percent of Bangladesh’s geographical area had been considered degraded. The major process of land degradation is soil erosion (due to water and wind erosion) contributing to over 75 percent of the land degradation. One third of this land was degraded by human activities, while nearly one half was degraded by a combination of human and natural causes. IUCN and BCAS found a negative and significant negative relationship between land degradation and food grain productivity in both the 1980s and 1990s. The future challenge are very significant for sustainable agriculture.

8.     Role of Micro Loan/Credit for adapting and to ensure food security:

Principal goal of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the food security of rural poor and what Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) are doing to enhance their food security in the context of climate change. Further, by identifying the problems and expectations related to present forms of MFIs it intends to explore the expected model of MFIs, which would ensure food security for the rural poor.

In order to overcome food and nutrition vulnerability through applying the following objectives of MFIs

o   To identity the impacts of climate change on food security of rural poor.

o   To investigate the changes in life style to ensure household food security in the climate change context.

o   To examine the role of Microfinance Institutions to address the changes in the lives of rural poor due to climate change and to ensure their food security.

o   To inspect the problems, constraints and expectations related to present forms of Microfinance Institutions to enhance food security of rural poor in the climate change context

o   To explore a new and expected model of Microfinance Institution to enhance food security of rural poor in the climate change context

9.     Recommendations and sustainability analysis:

Based on experience to date with poverty-environment mainstreaming as well as climate change adaptation, a number of challenges can be anticipated for mainstreaming climate change adaptation: Climate change is a complex issue with many links to development issues. To make it relevant to decision makers across the government, it is important to understand the linkages with broader poverty reduction and pro-poor economic growth. This entails identifying the potential economic costs of climate change as well as the benefits of taking action to enhance adaptive capacity.  Just as environmental sustainability requires the involvement of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, land use, water) and sub national bodies, climate change adaptation calls for the active participation of most sectors of the economy, as well as of sub-national authorities. Climate change impacts manifest themselves at the local level, affecting the livelihoods, health and vulnerability of the population, especially the poorest. It is thus important that the responses put forward at the national level be rooted in local conditions, recognizing the great damage that climate change can cause to livelihoods. Climate change is a long-term issue whose consequences are not yet fully visible. It is also an issue that requires managing risks and taking decisions in an environment of considerable uncertainty.

On the other hand poverty-environment mainstreaming and mainstreaming climate change adaptation countenance common challenges and thus can advantage from a common approach. The poverty-environment mainstreaming approach provides a credible platform to assist countries in mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development planning processes. While the proposed set of activities or modules and their sequence are not fixed, a certain number will likely be needed to produce lasting results. This ambiguity is not encouraging to decision-making on the part of political leaders or government officials whose mandates and terms are shorter, and who are concerned with political cycles. Essentially, mainstreaming can be seen from two points of view, this standpoint of actors inside institutions with a mandate to lead on an issue to be mainstreamed, and the perception of development actors seeking to improve perform in a wide variety of areas. Ultimately, the goal is full integration of climate change adaptation as standard development practice. The idea of sustainable agriculture has been around a long time. Since the very first crop was sown and animal was penned, farmers have tried to ensure that their land produces a similar or increasing yield of products year after back-breaking year; recent attempts to popularize the concept build on this tradition. Sustainable agriculture is the use of farming systems and practices which maintain or enhance (FACTA, 1990).

9.1.   Sustainable agriculture in global perspective:

Agriculture is sustainable when it is ecologically sound, economically viable, socially just, culturally appropriate and based on a holistic scientific approach (GIZ, 2010). Low-External-Input and Sustainable Agriculture (LEISA) is agriculture which makes optimal use of locally available natural and human resources (such as soil, water, vegetation, local plants and animals, and human labor, knowledge and skill) and which is economically feasible, ecologically sound, culturally adapted and socially just (GIZ, 2010). Sustainable development is the management and conservation of the natural resource base and the orientation of technological and institutional change in such a manner as to ensure the attainment and continued satisfaction of human needs for present and future generations. Such sustainable development (in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors) conserves land, water, plant and animal genetic resources, is environmentally non-degrading, technically appropriate, economically viable and socially acceptable.

9.2.   Objectives of sustainable agriculture

ü Make best use of the resources available;

ü Minimize use of non-renewable resources;

ü Protect the health and safety of farm workers, local communities and society;

ü Protect and enhance the environment and natural resources;

ü Protect the economic viability of farming operations;

ü Provide sufficient financial reward to the farmer to enable continued production and contribute to the well-being of the community; Produce sufficient high-quality and safe food;

ü Build on available technology, knowledge and skills in ways that suit local conditions and capacity.

ü Sustainable agriculture’s benefit to farm and community economies is grounded in four well-established economic development principles and a fifth, concern for the community (giz, 2010).

9.3.   Steps to a sustainable agriculture:

The agro-ecosystem is made up of many interacting components with multiple goals (GIZ, 2010). Nurtures natural resources and maintains ecological balance is driven by market demand and economically viable, ensures local replicability, gender equity, and social acceptability, generates predictable income (Lokman, 2012) and considers availability of household labor and seasonality of labor demand.

9.4.    Approaches of sustainable agriculture (according to Elyas Khan, 2011)

Ø  “Sustainable agriculture has been practiced for many decades and encompasses a tremendous number of different approaches described by many different names. To this point, most of these approaches have largely been limited to the substitution of environmentally.

Ø  More significant advances can be expected, however, as a result of developments in the science and art of agro-ecosystem design and management.

Ø  Many of the approaches in conventional agriculture (minimum tillage, chemical banding) would fall into the "efficiency" category.

Ø  Efforts to substitute safe products and practices (botanical pesticides, bio-control agents, imported manures, rock powders and mechanical weed control) are also gaining popularity.

Ø  The systems that focus on redesign of the farm are the most sophisticated, generally the most environmentally and economically sustainable, over the long term.

Ø  The approaches of sustainable agriculture are very variable, and are dependent on the physical resources of the farmer, and the degree deficiencies in support farm, the talents and commitment of the support available.”

9.5.    Policies for sustainable agriculture:

The Bangladesh govt. policies have always emphasized food grain self-sufficiency, which has not necessarily coincided with agricultural sustainability. The growth of agricultural production and productivity, which had risen significantly during 1970s and 1980s, declined during 1990s. These slowdowns have worsened since 2000, both overall agricultural production and food grains production have shown negative growth rates in 2000-01 to 2002-03 periods (Figure-7 & 8). Decline in the growth rates of agricultural production and productivity is a serious issue considering the questions of food security, livelihood, and environment. This examination must be framed not only by Bangladesh’s ongoing need to ensure food self-sufficiency but also by the consequences of access to international markets. But the main food of Bangladesh rice is also in vulnerable situation to increase production and feeding the nation due to complex climate and its changes. Figure 9 shown the productivity of rice over the period in Bangladesh and its increasing significantly since millennium but upcoming climate change and SLR will be building a barriers to its continuation.

Figure-9: Rice production in Bangladesh on areas (Aus, Aman and Boro) FYs: 1971-2010 and 2010-12

 10.     Conclusion:

This paper has argued the vulnerability of Coastal Area’s people in Bangladesh to climate change with particular reference to tropical cyclone occurrences and intensity, storm surges, coastal erosion, and particularly slain water effect in agriculture. The analysis has been both qualitative and quantitative. The vulnerability assessments may have many shortcomings in terms of analytical procedures, and more research is needed to arrive at a more reliable assessment so that a better response mechanism can be developed. A few adaptation options have also been identified. These options will pay a favorable return even if the climate change does not occur (Singh, O.P., 2002).

Bangladesh is dangerously susceptible to climate change persuaded vulnerability (Sayma and Salehin, 2012), but the core elements of its vulnerability are fundamentally contextual. May be Bangladesh is the only country in the world that lying on the deltaic flood-plain of three major rivers and their numerous branches. Each year about 35- 75% of the country is normally flooded or flash flooded (S.N. Alam et. al. 2008). We should use our water resource properly. As a result of climate change our water resource will face great trouble.

High density of population (800/skm) in coastal area of Bangladesh as well as higher percentages of poverty has shown in this region. Many projected climate change impacts including sea level rise, higher temperatures and enhanced monsoon precipitation and run-off, potentially reduced dry season precipitation, and increase in cyclone intensity would in fact reinforce many of these baseline stresses that already pose a serious impediment to the economic development of Bangladesh (Z. Karim. 1997). There is therefore a need to clearly address whether climate change impacts are simply one more reason to lower contextual vulnerability via business as usual economic development activity, or whether adaptation to climate change might require suitable adjustment in such projects or highlight the need for entirely new activities.

Thus far there has been no clear articulation on this important issue, despite the disproportionately high number of conferences and donor funded projects on climate change that have taken place in Bangladesh over the past decade. New climate oriented projects in Bangladesh might therefore require a higher doorsill of importance in the light of the considerable body of knowledge and past experience that has already been gathered. Nevertheless, climate change and sea level rise are on the edge of a slanting position for Bangladesh. The cost of climate change and sea level rise are terrible and they are by now taking place. Floods are getting more common, storms are getting tougher, and land droughts are getting longer. The melting of the ice caps in Greenland and the Arctic is picking up pace and sea levels are rising. The habitats of plants and animals are threatened, and food production is under pressure.

Climate change and sea level rise and salinity impacts are really high for Bangladesh, though the country plays very little role in greenhouse gas emissions, leading to climate change and sea level rise. By affecting different livelihood activities and important ecosystem of the country, sea level rise imposes a great threat to the existence of Bangladesh. Therefore, Bangladesh government need to pay keen attention to the issue and should develop strategy to combat sea level rise impacts and thus safe its citizen. It will not be wise to think that sea level will not rise at all, or to wait to see what happen in future. So, development and implementation of adaptation policies and taking initiatives for mitigation measures are the right ways to respond to sea level rise impacts. It deserves research to find the solutions of the potential problems, in practice and to develop salinity tolerant species for agriculture and fisheries sectors (NGOF, 2013).

The coastal protection activities should be done with sufficient drainage facilities. Adaptation cost should be recovered from coastal resources using economic instruments. I think researches also need to find out the way to save the country’s broad range of biodiversity, threatened by the further experience. For surviving adaptation and mitigation are two options for Bangladesh. Between the two, the first one is local specific and second one is mitigation demands through collective efforts of global communities. So, finally we can finish concluding remark by a sentence “if OECD set their mind with considering way to developing world than it could reduce a larger portion of climate change impact”.

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7.     Acronyms:

BBS BCAS BMD CC CCA CCSLR CEGIS CNG CO2 cm CZPo dS/cm DoE EPI      FAO GBM GHGs GoB GCC GMO  GW GLT GST    IPCC km2. m mm MT OECD SLR SMRC SPARRSO SRDI SST UN UNDP UNFCCC WB

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies Bangladesh Meteorological Department Climate Change Climate Change and Adaptation Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Centre for Environment and Geographic Information System Compressed Natural Gas Carbon dioxide Centimeter Coastal Zone Policy Deci-simens per centimeter Department of Environment Earth policy Institute Food and Agriculture Organization (UN) Ganges-Brahmputra-Meghna Green House Gases Government of Bangladesh Global Climate Change Genetically modified organ Global Warming Global Land Temperature Global Sea Temperature Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Square Kilometer Meter Millimeter Metric ton Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Sea Level Rise SAARC Meteorology Research Centre Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization Soil Resources Development Institute Sea Surface Temperature United Nations United Nations Development Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change World Bank